Published research this week leans heavily bearish on US Treasury bonds, with most analysts expecting yields to stay elevated or push higher.
The case builds on reinforcing forces: inflation still above the Fed's 2% target, a Fed that several research notes describe as behind the curve, higher energy prices from Middle East supply shocks, and a wave of Treasury supply from large deficits and AI-related corporate borrowing. One camp argues the Fed's terminal rate is "far too low." Others target 5–5.25% on the 10-year over the next 3–12 months, and a structural thread frames the AI capex boom as lifting real yields through the savings-investment channel. Reduced foreign demand from currency-hedging costs is flagged as another multi-year headwind.
On credit, the published consensus expects investment-grade spreads to widen on supply technicals rather than weaker fundamentals. A contrarian thread favors floating-rate leveraged loans over high yield.
Some near-term research allows for tactical dips, and one longer-horizon view sees the 10-year lower by 2027 if the Fed pauses.