Published research is coalescing around a striking view on US Treasuries: yields have further to rise across the curve, and the 5% level on the 10-year is squarely in play.
The case, as laid out in recent third-party analysis, rests on three reinforcing forces. Sticky inflation — with PPI running at 5.4% year-on-year and oil back above $100 — is the primary driver. On top of that, market-implied odds of a September Fed hike have jumped to 70–95%, and most published forecasts now embed one. A separate strand of research emphasizes that a $40+ trillion debt load and heavy Treasury issuance are lifting term premiums independently of Fed policy, effectively "untethering" the long end. One widely cited forecast pins the 10-year at 4.75% into Q3 2026 and the 30-year at 5.25%; another flags a nominal GDP-implied fair value near 5.8%.
The main nuance is timing, not direction. A contrarian thread argues a credibility hike could tactically pull long yields lower by reinforcing the Fed's anti-inflation resolve — even as the structural call stays higher.