Published research this week is nearly unanimous: US Treasury yields are biased higher across the curve, from tactical to strategic horizons.
Analysts point to three reinforcing forces. First, supply and fiscal strain — underwhelming Treasury buybacks, heavy issuance, and a rising term premium are pushing long-end yields toward cycle highs. Second, energy-driven inflation pass-through, with several research shops arguing the multi-decade bond bull market is structurally over. Third, a repricing of Fed policy, with some researchers now penciling in additional hikes that spill from the front end into the 10Y and 30Y.
The 30Y is drawing special focus as a barometer of fiscal discipline. On credit, one camp warns of wider IG, MBS, and data-center spreads plus lower recovery rates in leveraged loans and direct lending. A contrarian thread argues current yields on high-quality IG and structured credit are attractive entry points.
The main nuance: a minority view holds that yields could grind toward 5% near-term but fall materially over 1–2 years if growth weakens and core inflation settles near 2.3–2.5%.