US Treasury yields are facing broad upward pressure, and the published research consensus this week leans clearly toward higher yields at the 2Y and 10Y points.
The trigger: a stronger-than-expected May jobs report. Researchers across multiple notes argue it drove a 5–13bp sell-off at the front end and pushed Fed futures to fully price at least one 25bp hike by year-end. Several analysts also flag sticky above-target inflation — worsened by energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict — as keeping the bias upward. One camp notably lifted its 10Y target to 4.70% by year-end, arguing Treasuries look expensive versus global peers and that crowded long positioning skews risk toward higher yields. Others highlight that the Fed itself has shifted language from "when to cut" to "whether to hike further."
A contrarian strategic thread pushes back, projecting the 10Y drifts down toward ~4.05% by late 2027 as the Fed eases and inflation cools. But that's a multi-year horizon call — not a direct challenge to the near-term tactical view.
On credit, some recently-published views suggest corporate spreads stay tight unless an oil spike tips the economy into recession.