Published research this week leans hawkish on US Treasuries: yields are seen drifting higher across the curve, which means lower bond prices.
The dominant view points to sticky inflation and a Fed with little room to cut. Analysts tie the roughly 20bp rise in 2-year yields since early May to a resilient labor market and hawkish Fed commentary. Strong private payrolls and firmer oil prices are cited as the immediate catalysts pushing 10-year yields higher, with some technical work flagging a path back toward 4.7% — and a 5% handle if oil keeps climbing.
A structural camp argues US inflation stays above 3% for at least a year, citing AI capex, energy costs, and supply shocks, with eleven FOMC voters showing no appetite to cut. A related thread says tech-driven productivity gains justify structurally higher real yields. The consensus expects the curve to steepen into year-end as the Fed holds.
A contrarian view stands out: one research thread expects more Fed cuts than markets price and favors selective short-duration, high-quality investment grade exposure, betting tariff-driven inflation fades and the labor market softens.