Most published research this week leans bearish on US Treasuries — meaning yields higher, prices lower — with fiscal supply, sticky inflation, and geopolitics doing the heavy lifting.
The structural case, as one camp of analysts frames it, rests on debt math: federal debt is projected to reach 122% of GDP by 2034, implying roughly $22 trillion in additional Treasury issuance. Separate research notes highlight tariff-driven inflation and stubborn real yields as cyclical reinforcements, with the consensus view that yields are unlikely to fall meaningfully absent a real recession.
One widely-circulated thread argues the 10-year is more likely to touch 5% before retracing to 4%, citing energy costs, defense spending, and the risk that dovish Fed signaling actually steepens the long end by denting inflation-fighting credibility. Tactical commentary also flags markets pricing out a near-term Iran deal as pushing yields up.
The contrarian view is conditional: if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the Fed pivots dovish, the front and belly could reverse lower. Most published work assumes neither happens.