US bond research split sharply this week between an inflation-driven "yields higher" camp and a late-week pivot toward yields drifting lower.
Early in the window, multiple analysts argued the energy shock and Iran tensions would keep the 10-year under pressure, with some flagging scenarios where oil near $167 forces global yields up. A growing chorus pointed to hawkish Fed commentary from Lisa Cook and Neel Kashkari, with futures said to price roughly 60% odds of a hike by year-end. One contrarian voice expected long yields to keep grinding higher on fiscal and inflation concerns regardless of geopolitics.
By Thursday and Friday, the published consensus shifted: with the 10-year retracing from above 4.5% to around 4.44%, softer new home sales and a GDP revision miss, and reports of a US–Iran de-escalation, several research notes argued the spike was a buying opportunity and front-end yields could lead a broader move lower. One 2026 forecast set called for the 10-year near 4.05% by year-end.
In credit, spreads remain historically tight, with CMBS flagged as a rare wide pocket and CLO AAA seen compressing further.