Published research is leaning bearish on US Treasury prices — meaning yields stay high or push higher from here.
The consensus across recent analyst notes rests on a few reinforcing points: inflation remains stuck above target, the Fed is hawkish, and markets have flipped from pricing rate cuts to pricing potential hikes. One widely-cited figure puts the market-implied odds of at least one Fed hike before end-2026 at around 80%. Several research desks also argue that a more orthodox future Fed chair, focused on shrinking the balance sheet, would add Treasury supply and structurally lift yields. A related trade idea making the rounds: betting on a steeper yield curve as money growth and nominal growth recover.
On credit, views split by scenario rather than substance. One camp sees corporate spreads tightening if geopolitical tensions ease. Others warn high-yield spreads could blow out in a growth shock, with passive ETF flows masking real illiquidity. A contrarian thread argues intermediate Treasuries are worth owning as a hedge if growth and inflation cool.