Published research this week is overwhelmingly pointing to higher US Treasury yields across the curve, from the 2-year through the 30-year long bond.
The reasoning, according to the research consensus: sticky inflation, made worse by energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict, plus a hawkish rethink of Fed expectations. Several analysts highlight that the 2-year has sold off after upward revisions to consumer inflation expectations and Fed Governor Waller's push to drop the easing bias — markets are now pricing the first Fed hike as late as December 2026 or January 2027. Researchers note the 10-year is near multi-year highs and the 30-year is at levels last seen in 2007, with one widely-cited fund manager survey showing 62% expect yields to hit 6%. A longer-horizon view projects the 10-year drifting roughly 90 basis points higher over a decade as US debt-to-GDP climbs toward 127–130%.
A contrarian thread allows for lower yields only if Congress delivers real spending cuts or tax hikes — scenarios the same researchers call unlikely.