Oil's story this week: physical tightness is real, but the market is split on how long it lasts.
Most research during the week argued crude and especially diesel stay bid into Q4. The drivers cited: constrained Strait of Hormuz transit, damaged Russian refining capacity, drawn-down inventories, and US refineries already near max utilization. Backwardation in Brent and prompt physical premia were flagged as signals of genuine scarcity, with some analysts pointing to $110+ Brent if Saudi infrastructure takes further hits. On diesel, the consensus was uniformly tight — a potential US export ban was described as a catalyst that would spike European gasoil and widen transatlantic spreads sharply.
The counter-case got louder as the week progressed: a contrarian thread argued current prices embed a geopolitical premium, pegging "fair" Brent in the high-$60s to $70s, and flagged an unexpected US crude build. Several notes framed any post-ceasefire unwind as a sharp correction, though not back to pre-war levels given restocking demand.