Oil forecasts are split, with a mild near-term bullish lean on Middle East risk but a more cautious medium-term view from institutional research.
The bullish case is almost entirely geopolitical. Several recently published analyses argue Brent will stay elevated for months while the Iran and broader Middle East conflict drags on, with one strand noting the knock-on inflation risk is strong enough to keep central bank tightening on the table — Australia is flagged as particularly exposed. On refined products, one research thread warns global diesel inventories will stay unusually tight into year-end and early 2026, with any strategic reserve release offering only temporary relief.
The other camp pushes back. One published base case has oil prices gradually declining through 2027, treating today's spike as a risk scenario rather than the central path, while still acknowledging Middle East supply shocks as a real hazard. A contrarian view frames the current premium as purely geopolitical — not a structural supply problem — and expects prices to ease after the US midterms as Gulf tensions normalise.
The real disagreement is about timing and conditions for the geopolitical premium to fade, not fundamentals.