Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on oil, with the debate centered on magnitude rather than direction.
Geopolitics is the dominant thread. Multiple research notes point to Middle East tensions — Iran, the Houthis, and Strait of Hormuz risk — plus attacks on energy infrastructure as the core support for crude. Supply constraints reinforce it: depleted strategic reserves, tight refinery capacity, and fragmenting global supply chains. One camp of analysts sees Brent reaching $110/bbl by month-end; another model flags risk toward $112 near-term. A separate thread ties oil above $100 directly to sticky inflation into year-end.
Refined products echo the call. California diesel is already above $9/gallon, and researchers argue elevated diesel and gasoline persist — with knock-on effects for food inflation into 2027. US and European natural gas face similar pressure heading into winter.
The one real split: a US diesel export ban. Some views see a short ban as initially bearish before flipping bullish; others expect a longer ban to be net bullish globally. Deferred futures, notably, embed a cheaper spring.