Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on oil, with most analysts expecting Brent, WTI, and diesel to grind higher on geopolitical supply risk and tight fundamentals.
The dominant theme across recent research is the Iran conflict and its knock-on effects around the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple research desks point to shipping disruptions and unresolved tensions as structural support for elevated crude, with one camp arguing strength persists through late 2026 as a direct consequence of the failed June memorandum with Iran. Others flag China's resumption of Iranian oil imports as an added demand catalyst.
On supply, researchers estimate roughly 4–5 million barrels a day of global refining capacity is offline, leaving the seaborne diesel market about 1.5 million b/d short. That keeps diesel and heating oil acutely stressed, and some warn a US diesel export ban could spill bullishly into gasoline.
Longer-term, a contrarian thread sees Brent drifting lower by 2028 — but that reflects futures-curve mechanics, not a macro call. Structural bulls, by contrast, argue chronic underinvestment and 8% depletion point to $147+/bbl later this decade.