Oil is sharply higher, and the consensus view is that it stays that way as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
The core driver: a near-standstill in flows through Hormuz is pulling a meaningful chunk of global supply off the market. Most analysts agree the supply hit dwarfs any demand destruction so far, keeping pressure on prices firmly upward. Strategic reserves have softened the blow, but inventories are drawing down fast — and as they near minimum working levels, the squeeze gets worse. History also suggests prices fall slowly after a geopolitical spike, so a quick reversal looks unlikely.
The moves: Brent up roughly 5% overnight to around $113, WTI near $105. Refined products are following — diesel is approaching $6/gallon with little near-term relief in sight. Recent Brent prints range from $113 to $126, and one tactical view warns prices could go "much higher" if the blockade drags on for months.
Where views diverge is mostly about time horizon, not direction. A contrarian cyclical case sees Brent collapsing to $80–$85 by year-end once the strait reopens — possibly within two months — while still allowing for $150 if it doesn't. A brief intraday dip on Iranian negotiation signals was just that: an intraday dip, not a break in the bullish setup.
Bottom line: the supply disruption is unresolved, and that's what's driving the tape.