Assets

• GoldGold is caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical fear and a stronger dollar — and right now, the dollar is winning the session.
• OilOil is sharply higher, and the consensus view is that it stays that way as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
• BitcoinBitcoin is firmly bullish, with no dissenting views in sight.
• EUR/USDThe euro looks set to keep grinding higher against the dollar — and the bullish case spans both this week and the next two years.

Macro

• Macro themesThe defining macro story today is the Strait of Hormuz crisis and how it's reshaping oil, inflation, and central bank policy worldwide.