Published research is split on where crude goes from here, and the divide hinges almost entirely on Iran.
The larger camp of analysts argues prices drift lower if the post-midterm de-escalation with Iran holds. Their reasoning: a Democratic midterm result narrows the path to a prolonged war, raises the odds of a US-Iran deal, and bleeds the geopolitical risk premium out of the tape. Some recently published work also flags building inventories and a looser supply-demand balance by early next year. One strand within this camp sees Brent in the $70s if a deal lands.
A smaller contrarian thread of research says the sell-off from the ~$118 Brent peak has run too far. Their argument: the drop was fueled by diplomatic hope, not concrete progress. Iran's exports are near zero, its demands remain steep, and Brent found technical support near its 200-day average around $93.55 before recovering to roughly $100. This camp expects prices to stay high but volatile.
A neutral group simply maps wide scenarios between peace and escalation without committing.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): WTI crude oil: speculators (managed money) are net long, 1.1% of open interest. Positioning is mid-range (COT index 39 of 100), not at an extreme. The net position fell by 9,400 contracts on the week.