Published research this week leans one way on natural gas: lower prices ahead, especially in Europe.
The consensus across recent third-party analysis points to European gas easing through 2027 and into 2028, with no published view calling for higher prices. The common thread is a gradual unwind of the energy shock. Researchers argue new LNG capacity outside Qatar is coming online, US export capacity is helping refill storage, and industrial demand has been permanently dented by the 2026 price spike, with some switching from gas to coal. A milder winter would reinforce the move.
On Europe's TTF benchmark, one set of forecasts sees prices falling from around 82 EUR/MWh today to 70 in early 2027, 55 by end-2027, and 40 by end-2028. A more aggressive published call puts TTF below €40 before end-2027, conditional on Persian Gulf LNG flows normalising. A contrarian thread ties further downside to easing geopolitical risk, including a lower probability of fresh Iran strikes.
The direction is shared; the speed is where researchers disagree.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026; ESMA, as of 30 Oct 2026): US natural gas (Henry Hub): speculators (managed money) are net short, 13.4% of open interest, the largest net short in a year, crowded short (COT index 0). Dutch TTF gas: speculators (investment funds) are net long, 9.9% of open interest, mid-range (COT index 67).