Natural gas told two very different stories this week — bearish at Henry Hub, bullish in Europe and Asia.
On the US side, research flagged Henry Hub consolidating below $3/MMBtu with mild winter forecasts, storage running about 2% above the five-year average, and production recovering past 109 Bcf/d. Multiple analysts kept a short bias, pointing to a sell zone near $3.00 and a target around $2.50. The caveat: managed money net shorts have surged to the largest since 2020 — roughly 193k–205k contracts — which several notes called a setup for a sharp short-covering squeeze if cold weather or demand surprises hit.
In Europe, the tone was firmer. TTF research cited storage near 74–75% versus an 80% target, a weakening polar vortex, weak wind and nuclear output, and Middle East supply risk tied to Qatari LNG routed through Hormuz. One Q4 TTF call sat near €79/MWh, with upside risk if stocks drop to 20–25% by winter's end. For Asian LNG, a Q4 JKM estimate of $25.40/MMBtu reflected Atlantic cargo competition with Europe.