Published research is leaning bearish on natural gas and LNG over the next couple of years — but with a clear caveat that near-term prices stay elevated while Middle East disruptions linger.
One recent forecast sees European gas (TTF) falling to around €40/MWh by the end of 2027, assuming Middle East supply recovers in the first half of that year. In the near term, analysts note EU storage has already reached 74%, close to the 80% month-end target, which should ease upward pressure on prices. Even so, ongoing attacks around the Strait of Hormuz recently pushed TTF to a multi-year high near €88/MWh.
On LNG, the published view projects Japanese LNG at roughly $24.5/MMBtu in Q4 2026, with the market staying structurally tight due to Qatar disruption and Hormuz blockages. Easing is expected to be gradual, with pre-conflict prices not returning until around 2028.
Researchers also flag tightening LPG supply east of Suez, as Gulf export volumes in October are running well below September — with cooler Asian demand adding to the squeeze.