Two very different timeframes are shaping how published research is thinking about natural gas.
On the near term, one camp of analysts is bullish on European gas. They flag TTF futures near EUR 90/MWh — the highest since December 2022 and more than double pre-war levels. European storage sits just above 74% full versus an 89% five-year average, leaving a fragile winter balance. A reported LNG tanker attack near Yemen adds to supply jitters.
On the long term, a separate strand of recently-published research takes a bearish view on gas demand. The argument: AI-driven power demand will only extend the fossil demand plateau by a few months to a year, because gas turbines are sold out for nearly a decade and major tech firms are increasingly turning to solar, wind and batteries. These researchers expect gas demand to decline as electrification scales and Asia gets priced out of global gas markets, with significant fossil declines by the mid-2030s.
Different horizons, not a direct conflict — tight this winter, structurally challenged by the 2030s.