Natural gas split sharply along regional lines this week — Europe and Asia screamed higher, US Henry Hub stayed heavy.
European TTF jumped to its highest level since 2023, with research citing storage running behind seasonal targets (around 74%), Strait of Hormuz disruption curbing Middle Eastern LNG, and the EU's push to phase out Russian gas by 2027. UK wholesale gas was flagged up roughly 78% since July, with warnings of ~40% higher household bills by January. Asian spot LNG hit a three-year high as Pakistan scrambled for cargoes near $26/mmBtu, and Japanese LNG was projected to stay structurally tight through 2028. Published forecasts put TTF averaging €53/MWh in 2026, easing to €45 in 2027 — still ~70% above pre-conflict baselines, with upside risk if tensions escalate.
The US picture diverged: analysts pointed to building storage, strong production, and mild winter forecasts, with Henry Hub seen averaging around $3.48/mmBtu and speculators pushing net shorts to a 2.5-year high. Mexican demand and data-center buildout were cited as longer-term bullish offsets.