Published research is split on natural gas by region: bullish on Europe, bearish on US Henry Hub.
Researchers argue European TTF has climbed to multi-year highs on low storage, disrupted Middle Eastern LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and fierce competition with Asian buyers as Europe weans off Russian gas. One recently published projection sees TTF averaging around EUR 53/MWh through 2026 — roughly 70% above pre-conflict levels — with risks skewed higher if regional conflict escalates. The broader analyst consensus adds that geopolitics and winter demand keep upside pressure alive across the complex.
Henry Hub is the outlier. The published view describes US gas as consolidating lower on strong production, building storage, and mild weather, with the longer-term downtrend intact.
Looking further out, the same cyclical bull on TTF moderates to around EUR 45/MWh by 2027 as supply pressures ease — still well above pre-conflict norms. A separate strategic thread turns bullish on US gas over a 3–5 year horizon, citing AI data center demand and export infrastructure buildout.