Natural gas: published research is telling a split story heading into winter.
On the US side, researchers argue Henry Hub stays subdued, with one near-term anchor around $3.48/mmBTU on mild weather forecasts and manageable demand growth from new infrastructure. Waha is expected to keep trading at a discount to Henry Hub, though analysts see that gap narrowing as pipeline capacity expands. A supportive wrinkle: Mexican demand for US gas is reportedly growing at a 6.2% annual pace, with projections for an additional 2–2.5 Bcf/d over the next decade.
Europe is pulled two ways. The published consensus sees TTF holding just under €70/MWh through 2026 before falling toward €40/MWh in 2027 as Middle East supply tightness eases. Near-term, Dutch TTF has already jumped on winter demand, and European LNG is sitting near three-year highs.
One contrarian signal: speculative net shorts in gas are reportedly at their highest in two and a half years. Some analysts read that as bearish positioning that could weigh on prices before seasonal fundamentals reassert.