Published research is leaning bullish on global gas and LNG — with one clear exception: US Henry Hub.
The dominant view across recent analyst notes is that supply is tight and geopolitics is making it tighter. Researchers point to limited LNG flows out of the Persian Gulf heading into winter, Strait of Hormuz risk pushing Asian and European buyers into a bidding war for cargoes, and EU storage sitting below both last year's level and the five-year average. Asian spot LNG has jumped to a three-year high on that squeeze.
In Europe, analysts flag TTF around €84.5/MWh — far above the 2023–early 2024 range — with Russian supply disruption still unresolved. One policy committee notes UK wholesale gas is up 78% since July to 207p/therm, and expects prices to stay elevated and volatile absent a Middle East de-escalation.
The contrarian thread sits in the US. A separate analytical camp argues Henry Hub looks softer tactically: storage is still building, domestic production is strong, and mild winter forecasts weigh on price — though a technical bounce near $3 is possible.