Natural gas markets are flashing a supply-stress warning, according to research published this week.
Dutch TTF prices have doubled since June — from €40/MWh to €80/MWh by early September — and analysts tracking the move tie it directly to European storage sitting at 67% of capacity versus an 88% historical average. Middle East tensions disrupting LNG transit routes are compounding the squeeze.
On the LNG side, one strand of published research pegs Japanese LNG at an average $21.5/mmbtu in Q3 2026, citing damage at Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, bottlenecks around the Strait of Hormuz, competing European import demand, and constrained US supply. That research does not expect prices to ease materially until well into 2028, with a gradual decline toward $11.9/mmbtu projected by late 2028 as new capacity arrives.
The consensus read: depleted European reserves force aggressive bidding for spot cargoes, keeping both European and Asian benchmarks elevated. Near-term bullish, longer-term softer as supply catches up.