Published research is lining up behind a bullish call on natural gas — especially European TTF and global LNG — with US Henry Hub seen as a conditional follow-on trade.
The core argument in this week's research: European storage is running well below seasonal norms just as geopolitical disruption crimps LNG flows out of the Persian Gulf, leaving the continent exposed heading into heating season. Analysts point to summer heatwaves already lifting power demand and pushing TTF above €60/MWh for winter delivery, with prices at three-year highs and clear inflationary implications for the Eurozone.
The published consensus is that this tightness persists through end-2026, driven by fierce Europe-versus-Asia competition for US LNG cargoes. One longer-horizon view stands apart, suggesting meaningful relief only arrives in H2 2027 as new US LNG export capacity comes online — a sequencing story rather than a true disagreement.
On US gas, a contrarian thread argues Henry Hub rises if oil stays elevated and gas becomes the cheaper substitute, with any export-infrastructure spillover accelerating the move.