Natural gas looks set to stay elevated on both sides of the Atlantic, according to research published this week — and the drivers differ by region.
On Europe, one central bank analysis highlights UK wholesale gas up 78% since July, to 207 pence per therm, with the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts directly curbing global supply. Absent a resolution, policymakers expect energy prices to remain high and volatile, and project the Ofgem household price cap to rise 4% in Q4 and another 24% in Q1 as futures feed through. A separate strand of recent research echoes this, pointing to fresh cyclical highs in European gas driven by reduced Russian flows and firm industrial and heating demand.
On the US, a more structural view argues Henry Hub faces sustained upward pressure for decades. The case: 54 BCF/day of new transmission capacity and 25,000 miles of new pipelines needed by 2050, against permitting delays, steel tariffs, and surging LNG and data-centre power demand.
Near-term shock in Europe, long-dated infrastructure squeeze in the US.