Published research is lining up behind a bullish call on natural gas, with European benchmarks in particular expected to stay under upward pressure into winter and through year-end 2026.
Recent notes highlight that Dutch TTF prices surged above €83/MWh — the highest since late 2022 — as tensions along key shipping routes reignited supply fears, even with EU storage refilling ahead of winter. One camp of analysts ties this directly to renewed US-Iran hostilities and disrupted Strait of Hormuz transit, arguing both oil and gas have blown through prior scenario assumptions and now add upside risk to inflation forecasts.
A separate strand of macro research expects elevated European gas prices to persist through autumn and into year-end 2026, framing it as an ongoing energy price shock rather than a short-lived spike. Others add a structural angle: Russian gas still accounts for roughly a third of European consumption, and the published consensus sees further escalation — up to a full halt in Russian deliveries — as a live risk with no near-term relief priced in.