European natural gas dominated the week's research, with the published consensus pointing firmly higher into winter.
TTF briefly pushed past €80/MWh mid-week after reported Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian gas processing sites and a fire at the Yamal LNG facility, and one house lifted its Q4 forecast to €88/MWh. Analysts flagged EU storage near 67%, well below the five-year average, with backwardation actively discouraging inventory builds — a setup several researchers compared to 2021/22. Persistent Qatari LNG disruption, Asia-Europe competition for cargoes, and a widening JKM-TTF spread were cited as reinforcing the squeeze.
The Asia leg drew similar calls: one forecast sees Japanese LNG peaking near $21.5/mmbtu in Q3 and not normalizing until 2028, with oil-linked contracts adding a lagged push higher. Australia's east coast wholesale market was flagged as structurally tight into the 2030s.
Researchers broadly framed elevated gas as a live inflation input and a reason central banks may stay cautious on easing.