Natural gas: the published research this week points in one direction — higher for longer.
Researchers argue Japanese LNG prices will stay well above pre-conflict levels through 2026 and into 2028. The case rests on damaged export infrastructure, the inability to reroute cargoes around the Strait of Hormuz, and strong summer demand across Northeast Asia. That analysis sees a Q3 peak near US$21.5/mmbtu, with only a gradual decline and no return to prior levels until 2028.
A separate strand of recent research says UK natural gas has "gone through the roof," and projects elevated prices through the coming winter and into spring 2027. The drivers cited: low storage and fierce global competition for supply. Substantial pass-through into regulated household tariffs is expected in January and April.
The two views split by geography but share one signal: tight supply, geopolitical disruption, and demand competition. The UK simply carries the added burden of winter heating demand and a regulated price cap that transmits wholesale pain directly to bills.