European gas is set up for a squeeze, and the published research this week leans firmly in one direction: higher.
Analysts point out that EU storage is only 67% full — well below the five-year average — heading into heating season. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian gas processing sites and a reported fire at the Yamal LNG facility, a key European supplier, have already pushed TTF briefly past €80/MWh. A widening gap between Asian (JKM) and European (TTF) prices adds to the pressure.
On LNG, researchers highlight a mechanical pipeline: most Japanese LNG contracts are linked to oil prices with about a four-month lag, so the recent crude spike tied to Iran tensions is expected to feed straight into import costs in the coming months.
One recently published forecast lifts Q4 European gas to €88/MWh, citing ongoing disruption to Russian infrastructure and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Others note that the move toward €80 is already reshaping broader inflation expectations.