European natural gas prices are drawing consistent bullish attention in recently published research, with analysts flagging both near-term and winter-season upside.
Researchers note that European gas has already climbed more than 90% from late-June lows, reaching levels not seen since the onset of the US-Iran conflict. One camp attributes the move to elevated supply risk and its spillover into inflation expectations. A separate strand of published analysis adds a structural angle: backwardation in the forward curve — where prompt prices sit above later-dated contracts — is discouraging traders from rebuilding inventories, leaving storage buffers unusually thin heading into winter.
Both threads warn that further price spikes remain a live risk if import constraints drag on or if the weather turns colder than normal. One caveat flagged in the research: a milder El Niño winter could take some heat out of the move.
Coverage this cycle centers on the European benchmark. No comparable bullish case was made for US Henry Hub gas or LNG-linked pricing.