Natural gas is the standout directional call today, with two distinct bullish stories on different horizons.
On the European side, researchers flag that TTF — the region's benchmark gas price — has hit a new cycle high, with the setup drawing explicit comparisons to the 2021–2022 squeeze. The published analysis points to a tightening supply picture heading into winter, compounded by lingering geopolitical risk tied to Russia, and warns of further upside if the shortage deepens.
The East Coast Australian gas story is structural rather than event-driven. A separate strand of research argues that maturing Victorian fields, limited pipeline capacity moving gas from Queensland to southern states, and LNG import terminals are together setting a higher price floor of roughly A$18–20/GJ, versus current netback levels near $13–14/GJ. Domestic supply obligations are expected to offer only modest, temporary relief. The consensus in that work frames the escalation as a multi-decade issue, with upward pressure intact well into the 2030s.