US natural gas could grind higher into winter, according to newly published research — but the call hinges on the weather.
Analysts argue that if this winter delivers normal seasonal temperatures, Europe and China will end up competing for the same LNG cargoes, tightening the global market and pulling Henry Hub prices up with it. The published view frames tighter supply-demand as the base case, with higher US prices as the natural consequence.
The same research acknowledges the other side: an unusually warm winter — a "super El Niño" scenario — would flip the picture to global oversupply, undercutting that bullish setup. So the trade is really a bet on temperatures landing near seasonal norms rather than well above them.
Worth noting: no other research in today's coverage weighed in on natural gas, TTF, or LNG pricing, so this is a single-camp view rather than a consensus call. Something to watch as heating season ramps up.