European natural gas looks set to stay elevated for the next two years, according to research published this week.
The published analysis argues prices never really normalized after the initial war-driven spike. Storage across the continent is running low heading into winter, Asian demand for LNG remains firm (keeping cargoes competitively bid away from Europe), and fresh geopolitical flare-ups are adding a risk premium back into the curve.
Researchers also point to options markets, where traders are paying up for protection against sharp upside moves. That skew implies real concern about tail scenarios — a cold winter, or an escalation in energy supply disruptions — rather than a base case of orderly normalization.
The broader takeaway from this camp: European gas is structurally tighter than pre-2022, and the balance of risks over the next two years still tilts higher, not lower.