Natural gas research skewed firmly bullish this week, on both sides of the Atlantic.
On Europe, analysts flagged that storage sits just under 63% full heading into heating season — well below the five-year average — with prices already breaking above EUR68/MWh to multi-month highs. Researchers argued even the reduced 75% storage target looks difficult to hit, and options pricing signals sharp upside risk tied to low inventories, resilient Asian demand, and renewed geopolitical tension.
On the US side, one thread pointed to structural pressure from power demand growth, with data centers and AI load pulling gas-fired generation back into a premium role for grid reliability, supported by a large pipeline of new gas projects.
For the coming winter, published research leaned bullish under a "normal" weather base case, expecting Europe and China to compete aggressively for LNG cargoes. The main offset flagged was a very warm winter scenario, which could flip the setup to global oversupply.