US natural gas could be entering a multi-year bull cycle, according to research published this week.
The core thesis from a constructive strand of recent analysis: structural power demand — driven by data centres and the AI buildout — is set to outpace new supply and efficiency gains over the next three to five years, pushing gas prices meaningfully higher.
Researchers argue that gas-fired generation is effectively indispensable for grid reliability, since it can ramp up and down to balance intermittent renewables and cover surging baseload needs. They point to a substantial pipeline of new gas-fired power projects already under construction to serve those loads.
The takeaway from this camp: even with efficiency improvements, the math of AI-era electricity demand favors more gas burn, not less — and current prices may not reflect that setup.
Worth watching whether competing views on supply growth or demand elasticity push back on this thesis in the weeks ahead.