Natural gas research skewed decisively bullish this week, with supply shocks and weather stress converging on an already-tight market.
Analysts flagged that QatarEnergy's force majeure extension through September has pushed the Japan-Korea Marker to a four-month high near $21/MMBtu, up from roughly $11 pre-conflict, as European utilities and Asian buyers compete for scarce spot cargoes. On the European side, published research lifted TTF forecasts to around €51-52/MWh for the back half of 2026, citing the collapse of the US-Iran MoU, further Qatari disruptions, and EU storage sitting near 58% versus a 73% seasonal norm. Spot TTF is reportedly up about 15% on the month and 70% year-over-year.
Weather was a second bullish leg: one thread argued El Niño-driven heat waves across both hemispheres could tighten balances quickly despite adequate storage. Knock-on effects extended to refined products, with sharply higher forecasts for diesel, gasoil and marine fuels tied partly to expected gas-to-power switching this winter.
A lone contrarian note pointed to softer July export outcomes — worth watching, but isolated.