European natural gas prices face sustained upward pressure, according to research published this week, with no offsetting bearish views on the table.
Analysts point to EU gas storage sitting well below seasonal norms — 58% full versus a 73% average — partly blamed on energy flow disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. Spot TTF prices are already up roughly 15% on the month and 70% year-on-year. The published view is that tight gas markets will persist as long as the US-Iran standoff remains unresolved.
A separate strand of recent research, framed inside a refined products outlook covering diesel and marine fuels, flags elevated LNG supply risk and stronger European winter demand as compounding pressures. More gas burn in the power sector could tighten the market further.
One caveat researchers emphasize: the bullish call is conditional. A durable US-Iran diplomatic deal would be the main downside risk and could unwind much of the pressure quickly.