Natural gas is telling two very different stories depending on which side of the Atlantic you're on.
Published research this winter leans strongly bullish on European gas (TTF). Several recent analyses point to the same pressures: storage sitting below seasonal norms, stalled US-Iran negotiations keeping Persian Gulf LNG flows offline, and a hot summer that drained power-sector inventories heading into heating season. One camp of analysts warns TTF could spike above €80/MWh if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reliably reopened before winter, with Asian buyers competing hard for the same LNG cargoes. A contrarian thread argues European prices could normalize — but explicitly only if geopolitics de-escalate and reserves refill.
The US picture is the mirror image. Recently published views frame Henry Hub as soft, with spot drifting into the $2.60s on ample storage and no near-term catalyst. One longer-dated forecast pegs Henry Hub flat around $3.50/mmbtu through 2026 and 2027, reinforcing the oversupply story.
The bull/bear split is really about scenarios, not direction: bulls assume disruption persists, bears assume it resolves.