LNG prices are flashing a major supply-squeeze signal, according to research circulating this week.
Analysts point to QatarEnergy extending its force majeure on LNG deliveries through at least September, leaving European utilities and Asian buyers competing for a shrinking pool of spot cargoes. The Japan-Korea Marker — the benchmark price for LNG delivered into North Asia — has roughly doubled, moving from around $11/MMBtu before the disruption to $21/MMBtu, a four-month high.
The published view is that upward pressure can persist as long as key Qatari volumes stay offline. Researchers add a compounding risk: if European storage fills more slowly than expected heading into winter, cross-basin competition for cargoes intensifies further, keeping the bid under prices on both sides of the world.
The through-line from this week's research: a single-country outage is now setting the global gas tape, and the market has little slack to absorb another shock.