Natural gas markets tightened sharply this week, with published research pointing to a global supply squeeze heading into winter.
Analysts flagged QatarEnergy's extension of force majeure on LNG deliveries into September as a major driver — with Qatar accounting for roughly 20% of global LNG trade, researchers argued the shortfall is tightening both European and Asian markets. Several notes highlighted that global LNG prices are now at their highest since 2022, citing Persian Gulf supply constraints and thin pre-winter inventories. European storage was flagged at 56% full versus a 10-year average of 72%, with EU LNG imports down 25% year-on-year in July. One thread argued the situation could add roughly €100 to average European household power bills.
US Henry Hub drew a more bearish tactical read from at least one desk, citing robust Lower 48 production and inventories 6% above the five-year average, with support seen near $2.50/MMBtu. A counter-scenario noted a Strait of Hormuz reopening would sharply pressure prices lower.