Natural gas is set up for a bullish stretch, according to recently published research on both European and global benchmarks.
One thread of analysis has lifted its European TTF forecast to €51/MWh for Q3 2026 and €52/MWh for Q4 2026. The reasoning: the collapse of the US–Iran memorandum of understanding, fresh disruptions to Qatari LNG flows, and European storage sitting well below seasonal norms — a mix that sharpens the bidding war with Asia for flexible LNG cargoes.
A separate camp of researchers frames the bull case through weather rather than geopolitics, pointing to El Niño-driven heat waves across both hemispheres and the air-conditioning demand surge that follows. Storage buffers look comfortable today, this view concedes, but prolonged heat could tighten balances fast against a backdrop of stressed supply chains and geopolitical risk.
The published consensus is that the market balance tightens through late 2026 and into 2027, with risks skewed to the upside rather than the downside.