Natural gas has a bullish setup on both sides of the Atlantic — but the whole thesis hinges on the Middle East staying disrupted.
Researchers argue the US case rests on sustained LNG export strength: American LNG shipments have held above 21 bcm/month into 2026 as geopolitical constraints — especially the sharp drop in Qatari supply — have hobbled competing producers. The published view is that as long as the Iran conflict keeps squeezing global gas supply, international demand for US cargoes acts as a structural tightener on domestic Henry Hub prices.
On the European side, one camp of analysts points to a deteriorating outlook for Gulf LNG recovery and a fiercer scramble between European and Asian buyers. TTF is already up 10% since mid-July; Asian benchmark prices are up 29%, reflecting that race for scarce cargoes.
A scenario overlay in recent research frames TTF as a binary catalyst: a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure would drain inventories and push European gas materially higher, while a swift reopening — given existing surpluses — would sharply reverse those gains.