Published research this week leans bearish on U.S. natural gas, with Henry Hub seen testing lower support in the near term.
Analysts point to an oversupply setup: strong lower-48 production, storage running more than 6% above the five-year average, and softer LNG feed gas flows tied to maintenance outages. A large recent EIA storage injection reinforces that view, and one camp argues the path of least resistance points toward the $2.50/MMBtu support zone.
A contrasting thread of recent research flags the opposite risk in Europe. There, TTF-linked prices face upside pressure from Middle East energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, elevated cooling demand during summer heatwaves, and the knock-on to power prices — a dynamic that some estimates suggest is adding roughly EUR 100 to the average European household energy bill.
The takeaway from the published consensus: U.S. and European gas are moving in opposite directions right now — domestic glut on one side, geopolitical and weather-driven squeeze on the other.