Natural gas is a tale of two regions right now, according to recently published research.
Researchers argue European and UK gas prices are set to stay elevated, driven by Middle East conflict disruptions and thin storage heading into winter. One analysis notes European gas has already surged more than 50% since late June, with shortage fears skewing risks higher. A separate published view flags that TTF prices have cleared their March/April peaks and expects Europe to remain elevated for the next three to six months. UK gas above 60 is also being cited as a fresh inflation pressure point, with the risk skew firmly upward absent geopolitical relief.
The US picture is more mixed. One forecast sees Henry Hub drifting modestly higher — from $3.5 in 2025 to $3.7 in 2026 — on supply-demand fundamentals. A contrarian thread is tactically bearish near-term, pointing to a roughly 15% US price decline while Europe rallied, reflecting looser US storage. A broader structural bull case argues data center power demand will make gas a key long-term winner as small modular nuclear stays years away from scale.