Natural gas looks set to move higher across the board, according to a range of recently published research — though the reasons differ sharply by region.
The main catalyst cited by analysts is the Middle East supply shock. Disruptions to LNG flows around the Strait of Hormuz are leaving Europe and Asia exposed. One camp of researchers flags that EU gas storage is well below both last year and the five-year average heading into winter, with LNG supply recovering only slowly — a clear setup for price spikes. Others tie the strength to lingering geopolitical risk and Europe's push to phase out Russian gas.
A more fundamental view on US Henry Hub points to a stable futures curve and a year-end 2026 target of $3.50, up from around $2.90 today.
The interesting split is Asian LNG. A contrarian thread of recent research argues imports will actually fall year-on-year, as Pakistan, India, and South Korea show real demand destruction and switch back to coal. Lower volumes can still coexist with higher spot prices — but the demand signal is worth watching.