Natural gas told two very different stories this week, split by geography.
On the European side, most published research leaned bullish: TTF hit multi-month highs as storage sits well below the five-year average (around 51% vs 62% last year), heatwave demand bit, and analysts flagged serious upside risk into winter if LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz stay disrupted or Qatar's Ras Laffan restart slips. One thread argued UK gas is already up 35–40% from lows, keeping inflation sticky. A quieter contrarian view saw scope for prices to ease if the US–Iran arrangement holds and flows normalize.
On the US side, research turned more cautious near-term: a larger-than-expected storage injection pushed inventories 7% above the five-year average, described as "undeniably bearish" for the near term — even as a longer-run thesis still targets $4+/MMBtu at Henry Hub.
On Asian LNG, researchers see Japan's peak near $18.6/mmbtu this quarter, with tightness lingering out to 2028.