Natural gas is splitting sharply along geographic lines heading into winter, according to research published this week.
On the European side, multiple research notes argue TTF prices face meaningful upside into the cold months. One analysis flags that European wholesale gas jumped 16% in a single week, back near March highs, as Gulf tensions raise fears of winter supply shortages alongside elevated summer demand. A separate published view echoes this, noting European prices already around EUR 60/MWh and arguing that oil and refined product disruptions are spilling into gas markets while inventories keep drawing down.
The US picture looks entirely different in the recent research. One camp of analysts points to EIA data showing inventories 6.4% above the five-year average on the back of record production, leaving Henry Hub technically weak near $2.84–$2.86 with no obvious catalyst for a bounce.
The takeaway from these views: the two benchmarks are moving in opposite directions for distinct reasons — a European risk premium versus a US supply glut — so the calls are complementary, not contradictory.