Published research this week leans modestly bullish on natural gas, with European and Asian LNG prices facing the clearest near-term upward pressure.
The bullish case, according to several strands of commodities research, rests on tight European storage heading into summer — one analysis notes inventories entered the build season at 51% versus 62% a year ago — combined with a regional heatwave keeping TTF elevated. The spot-versus-winter price curve is described as unfavorable, extending pressure through the pre-winter period.
On LNG, researchers point to Japanese prices staying high after damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, constrained liquefaction, and limited vessel availability, with one forecast pointing to an average peak near $18.6/mmbtu in the September quarter. For US Henry Hub, a more technical read argues the accumulation zone is intact and targets $4+/MMBtu from the current $2.91–3.29 range.
A contrarian thread frames things over a longer horizon: combined oil and gas futures at end-June imply a meaningful drop in energy's contribution to European inflation in 2026, assuming geopolitical tensions ease and supply normalizes.